2018 NFL draft order: Top 20 set; Browns have two picks in top four

John Dorsey might want to send Sashi Brown a holiday card.

The new general manager of the Cleveland Browns is staring at a boatload of draft capital, especially after the Houston Texans lost Sunday, thanks the Browns’ old GM. Houston’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts gave Cleveland the No. 4 overall pick in addition to the No. 1 overall selection that the Browns had locked up in Week 16. Oh, and they have the Texans’ second-round pick for good measure, too.

With the regular season wrapped up, the draft order for the first 20 picks is all set, aside from one coin flip at picks Nos. 9 and 10. You can see that below, along with our live FPI projections for picks 21-32. Those projections are based on live simulations of the playoffs and do not include changes to FPI ratings based on Sunday’s games.

The Browns are going to want a quarterback. The question for Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold may now be: Do they want the Browns? Both are underclassmen, and neither have announced yet if they are going pro.

When: April 26-April 28
Where: Arlington, Texas
NFL draft home page » | Projected order »

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2. New York Giants (3-13)

It looked dicey for a bit — and was a 50-50 race when New York and Indianapolis were at halftime — but the Giants locked up the second overall pick despite beating the Redskins because the Colts also won, beating the Texans. That competition for the No. 2 pick might have been the most exciting race of the early window Sunday.

Though they would have been much better off with the No. 2 slot, the Colts will be in the enviable position of having the best draft pick among teams that don’t need a quarterback. That means they might be able to return a haul if they decide to trade down.

Entering the day, this pick had a 58 percent chance of landing here. This worked out as well as it could have for the Browns, and it means that in addition to potentially drafting a quarterback No. 1 overall, they can take another premium player here or — in the spirit of the old Browns’ regime — trade down.

Deshone Kizer finished the season with 11 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

John Elway was a quarterback. John Elway needs a quarterback. John Elway might draft a quarterback. It appears there are likely four first-round caliber quarterbacks in Darnold, Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. The question now is: Will the QB that Elway wants still be available at No. 5?

Did the Jets lose just enough that they won’t have to make a costly trade up for the quarterback they want? This is the third time in four years they have ended up with the No. 6 pick. If it works out the way Leonard Williams and Jamal Adams have so far, they ought to be in good shape. Vernon Gholston on the other hand …

The Bucs don’t need a quarterback but have the benefit of drafting early. They could use some help in the secondary, however.

2 Related

Given that the Bears desperately need to get Mitchell Trubisky some help, one has to think that Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley would be a candidate to land with them.

9/10. Oakland Raiders (6-10, coin flip pending)

Will Monday Night Football analyst Jon Gruden have a say in this pick? It’s possible with Jack Del Rio fired and the Raiders preparing to pursue him. Regardless of who ends up coaching the Raiders, they could use some help on defense.

Through Week 12, the 49ers had a 99 percent chance to end up with a top-five pick. Then Jimmy Garoppolo happened. Hard to imagine there will be any complaints out of San Francisco, though. They have found their franchise quarterback.

The Dolphins are another team with an interesting decision to make at quarterback after the Jay Cutler experiment didn’t work out. Do they hand the reigns back to Ryan Tannehill? Do they bring in some veteran insurance? Or do they draft another young QB with high upside?

With Marvin Lewis likely gone, is it totally crazy to imagine the Bengals moving on from Andy Dalton and entering the quarterback free-for-all? Maybe not. If so, they might be better positioned to try a veteran, but at No. 12 maybe they have a shot at one of the second-tier rookies.

Jay Gruden will be back. Will Kirk Cousins join him? If not — and if the Redskins don’t replace Cousins in free agency or the trade market — then we can add them to the list of teams that could add a first-round quarterback. At this spot they might be in range for Mayfield, or maybe they could trade up for one of the other hot names.

NFL Nation reporters grade each eliminated team’s regular season, assess what position each should target in the 2018 draft and look ahead to the offseason. Full coverage »

It has been apparent in watching the Packers without Aaron Rodgers that this team needs help. In particular, they could use some help on defense, perhaps part of the reason why Todd McShay had Green Bay selecting Boston College pass-rusher Harold Landry in his first mock draft.

Whether Carson Palmer is around next season or not, the Cardinals need a quarterback of the future. They could absolutely be in the mix for the four potential first-round signal-callers. No matter who they take in the first round, that player likely won’t be coached by Bruce Arians.

Entering Sunday, the Ravens had a 97 percent chance to reach the playoffs, per FPI. Sometimes, that 3 percent happens.

Here’s another sleeper quarterback team. Rivers is still good enough that the Chargers can win with talent around him — and they do have talent around him — but they also might want to start thinking about life after him.

The Seahawks need help on the offensive line. Everyone knows that. They might be hoping that one of the Notre Dame offensive linemen — offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey or guard Quenton Nelson — fall to them here.

With Dez Bryant’s future in Dallas uncertain, perhaps Dallas could look to the draft for another top-flight wideout at No. 19.

The Lions already have a good cornerback in Darius Slay, but it’s hard to have too many corners in the NFL.

Projected 21-32, from FPI:

21. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
22. Buffalo Bills (9-7)
23. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
24. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6)
25. Carolina Panthers (11-5)
26. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
28. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
29. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
30. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
31. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
32. New England Patriots (13-3)

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